The recent bank merger between Bank of Baroda, Vijaya Bank, and Dena Bank is essentially a move of cowardice, and not the bold reformist step it is touted to be. The original plan (for reforming the banking sector) was to have just 6 public sector banks, and while Modi has reduced the number from 26 to 19, there’s still a far way to go. Further, the plan was not to achieve the reduction in numbers by merging all of the public sector banks into 6 mega banks that are still in government control, but to privatise them eventually. However, the traditional governmental dislike for privatisation and the lack of political will in an election year resulted in this sub-optimal solution of merged banks.
The merged entity is set to become the third largest Indian bank, however the size is hardly important. In fact, it would actually deter any real progress in reforming the banking sector. Another move of cowardice was in giving the assurance that no jobs would be lost due to merger. Thus, the banks cannot really cut cost and achieve economies of scale in this aspect.
The history of such mergers is not reassuring. The merger of New Bank of India (NBI) with Punjab National Bank (PNB) in September 1993, of Global Trust Bank with Oriental Bank of Commerce in 2004, and the spate of merging the associate State Banks with the main State Bank have all worked poorly. The strong bank in the merger eventually ends up suffering considerable losses. The editorial in The New Indian Express comments:
“When a strong and weak bank merge, the combined entity loses competitiveness and the merger is counterproductive. An RBI working group recommended avoiding such events without first restructuring weaklings—a step now being bypassed.”
Failures are the essence of capitalism, so before gaining size, we need measures that allow banks to fail safely without causing systemic shocks like Lehman Brothers. No math can correct errors made out of lack of self-discipline, and as we still fight the last NPA war, rather than planning for the next one, it’s time to act bold, taking haircuts and ceding control to private parties. For, in a growing economy, banks should lend without worrying about provisions or sacrificing profits at the altar.